Determinan Kemiskinan Sektor Pertanian pada Provinsi Termiskin Indonesia dalam Perspektif Panel Dinamis
Abstract
Abstrak Kemiskinan agraris di Indonesia tetap bersifat struktural dan persisten, khususnya di provinsi-provinsi yang ditandai oleh ketimpangan mendalam, dominasi pertanian subsisten, dan lemahnya integrasi pasar. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis determinan kemiskinan sektor pertanian pada sepuluh provinsi termiskin di Indonesia selama periode 2019–2024, dengan fokus pada peran kausal Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP), produktivitas lahan, luas panen, modal manusia yang diproksikan melalui rata-rata lama sekolah, serta akses pembiayaan yang diukur melalui penyaluran Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR). Dengan menggunakan pendekatan panel dinamis melalui System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) untuk mengoreksi endogenitas dan dependensi lag, analisis menghasilkan tiga temuan utama. Pertama, kemiskinan agraris menunjukkan persistensi dinamis yang kuat, mengonfirmasi keberadaan ekuilibrium kemiskinan yang bersifat self-reinforcing dan tidak dapat diatasi oleh intervensi sektoral jangka pendek. Kedua, NTP merupakan satu-satunya variabel yang berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kemiskinan, menegaskan bahwa perbaikan terms of trade petani—bukan perluasan produksi fisik—adalah mekanisme kausal dominan. Ketiga, luas panen menghasilkan pengaruh positif dan sangat signifikan terhadap kemiskinan, mencerminkan paradoks subsistence expansion di mana ekspansi pertanian di wilayah yang terpinggirkan secara struktural merupakan sinyal distress ekonomi, bukan kemakmuran. Pendidikan, produktivitas lahan, dan KUR menunjukkan arah pengaruh yang konsisten dengan teori namun tidak signifikan secara statistis, mengindikasikan kegagalan ekosistem pasar dan keterbatasan kapasitas absorpsi kredit. Temuan ini menantang paradigma kebijakan berbasis ekspansi produksi dan menegaskan urgensi reorientasi strategi pembangunan pertanian menuju penguatan posisi tawar petani, pembangunan infrastruktur pasar, dan reformasi desain program kredit subsidi.
Keywords:
agrarian poverty; Farmer's Exchange Rate; dynamic panel; GMM System; subsistence trap; Indonesia
References
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Published
2026-05-23
How to Cite
Amanda, O., & Prajanti, S. D. W. (2026). Determinan Kemiskinan Sektor Pertanian pada Provinsi Termiskin Indonesia dalam Perspektif Panel Dinamis. Jesya (Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Ekonomi Syariah), 9(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36778/jesya.v9i2.2665
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