Macroeconomic Drivers of ROA in Indonesian Islamic Commercial Banks: A Time Series Analysis (2019-2024)
Abstract
This study examines the impact of the BI Rate, inflation, and the rupiah exchange rate on the profitability of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia during 2019–2024. Previous studies on Islamic bank profitability have produced inconsistent findings due to differences in research periods, data structures, and analytical approaches. Most prior studies relied on annual or panel data, limiting their ability to capture short-run macroeconomic dynamics during the post-pandemic recovery period and monetary policy tightening. This study addresses these gaps by employing monthly time-series data and the Error Correction Model (ECM) framework to analyze both short-run and long-run relationships within the Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) perspective. Secondary data were obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority (OJK), and Statistics Indonesia (BPS), comprising 72 monthly observations from January 2019 to December 2024. The findings reveal that, in the long run, the BI Rate negatively and significantly affects Return on Assets (ROA), while inflation and the exchange rate positively and significantly influence profitability. In the short run, macroeconomic variables do not significantly affect ROA, indicating that Islamic bank profitability is relatively resilient to temporary macroeconomic shocks. However, the significant Error Correction Term (ECT) confirms the existence of a long-run adjustment mechanism toward equilibrium. This study aims to fill the gap in knowledge about banking and provide new perspectives for policymakers, especially central banks, managers, and stakeholders. By focusing on macroeconomic factors that influence profitability.
Keywords:
Exchange Rates, Inflation, BI Rates, Islamic Banking, Return on Asset (ROA)
References
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Raharjo, H., Wijayanti, A., & Dewi, R. R. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan Dan Inflasi Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia (Tahun 2014-2018). Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Manajemen, 16(1), 15–26. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.31599/jiam.v16i1.110
Rajagukguk, W. (2020). Pengantar Ekonomi Makro. In UKI Press (1st ed.).
Ramadhani, E., & Wardana, G. K. (2021). Pegaruh Inflasi, BI 7 Day Repo Rate dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Margin Pembiayaan Murabahah Perbankan Syariah. Jurnal Masharif Al-Syariah: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 6(30), 787–802. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.30651/jms.v6i3.9755
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Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D (Sutopo (ed.); 2nd ed.). CV Alfabeta.
Warjiyo, P. (2004). Mekanisme Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Di Indonesia (Issue 11). Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) BI.
Amzal, C. (2016). The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Indonesia Islamic Banks Profitability Article History. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam, 2(1), 71–86. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.20473/jebis.v2i1.1968
Andriani, W. (2024). Menilai Kinerja Keuangan Perbankan Syariah di Bursa Efek Indonesia : Pendekatan Analisis Rasio dan Common Size. Istikhlaf, 6(2), 17–33. https://doi.org/10.51311/istikhlaf.v6i2.653
Anindyaa, A. P., Apriliantob, F., & Agustin, A. F. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate, dan Kurs Terhadap Profitabilitas ( Roa ) Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia. Journal of Islamic Economics Development and Innovation (JIEDI), 2(3), 11–18. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.35897/ijiedia.v5i1263
Basuki, A. T. (2021). Analisis Data Panel Dalam Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis. PT Rajagrafindo Persada, 1–161.
Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2023). Research Design (P. Schroeder (ed.); Sixth edit). Sage.
Fadila, L. S. W. N., Safutri, N., & Sari, Y. (2025). Pengaruh Inflation, Bi Rate, Dan Exchange Rate Terhadap Return on Asset Bank Umum Syariah Periode 2020-2024. RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business, 4(2), 560–566. https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v4i2.544
Fitri, N. A., & Putra, R. F. (2024). Konsep Nilai Tukar Rupiah , Aliran Modal Asing dan Kebijakan Moneter dalam Tinjauan. Jurnal Al-Intifaq, 4(2), 61–74.
Gazi, M. A. I., Karim, R., Senathirajah, A. R. bin S., Ullah, A. K. M. M., Afrin, K. H., & Nahiduzzaman, M. (2024). Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability of Islamic Shariah-Based Banks: Evidence from New Economic Horizon Using Panel Data. Economies, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12030066
Ginting, A. L. (2024). Inflasi Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Minat Investasi Saham Gen Z. Jurnal Rumpun Manajemen Dan Ekonomi, 1(3), 339–351. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.61722/jrme.v1i3.1677
Gunanto, A. (2023). Internal Variables and Macroeconomic Factors as Determinants of Profitability in Islamic Banking Indonesia. Futurity Economic & Law, 3(4), 48–66. https://doi.org/10.57125/FEL.2023.12.25.04
Husen, M. S., & Fahlevi, R. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Asing Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syariah Indonesia. At-Tamwil : Islamic Economic and Finance Journal, 03(02), 148–162. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.33558/attamwil.v3i2.10144
Husna, A., Atika, Wahyudi, S., & Soemitra, A. (2021). Pengaruh_Kebijakan_Moneter_Terhadap_Kine. Jurnal Riset Akutansi Dan Bisnis, 21(2), 215–225. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.30596/jrab.v21i2.7682
Ikbal, M., Ridwan, M., & Khusnudin. (2023). Studi Komparatif Makro Ekonomi Pemikiran Cendikiawan Muslim Klasik. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Islam, 9(01), 1290–1295. https://doi.org/10.29040/jiei.v9i1.7044
Jumiati, E. (2022). Kebijakan Moneter Sebagai Pengendali Inflasi Dan Nilai Tukar (Peran Bank Sentral). Jurnal Perbankan Syariah, 2(1), 1–14.
Khotimah, K., Masyari, M. I., Hikam, M. N. A. H., & Abadi, M. taufiq. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 2(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.61722/jssr.v2i1.635
Laili, S. N., & Siswanto. (2021). An Analysis of Cashless Society for Monetary Policy in Perspective of Islam. Proceedings of the International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Social Science (ICONETOS 2020), 529, 736–743. https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.210421.106
Louise Celwin. (2024). Pentingnya Kesadaran Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Tahun 2021 Hingga 2024 the Importance of Inflation Awareness To Economic Growth in Indonesia 2021 To 2024. Jiic: Jurnal Intelek Insan Cendikia, 1(September), 2645–2654. https://jicnusantara.com/index.php/jiic
Maronrong, R. M., & Nugrhoho, K. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Harga Saham Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Otomotif Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2012- 2017. Jurnal STEI Ekonomi, 26(02), 277–295. https://doi.org/10.36406/jemi.v26i02.38
Mishkin, F. S. (2022). the Economics oFi̇nanci̇al the.
Nasution, A. A., Balqis, K. P., Zalyanti, C. A., Harahap, I. T. S., & Batubara, M. (2024). Mekanisme Trasmisi Kebijakan Moneter Di Negara Berkembang. Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 9(3), 1984–1998. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.30651/jms.v9i3.23204 Volume
Pratiwi, S. N., Rusiadi, R., & Faried, A. I. (2024). Analisis Efektivitas Inflasi, Bi Rate, Nilai Tukar (KURS), Pembiayaan Murabahah, dan Pembiayaan Musyarakah Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia (Periode 2020 – Desember 2022). Akuntansi 45, 5(1), 92–106. https://doi.org/10.30640/akuntansi45.v5i1.2440
Putri, I. A., & Nasution, E. O. A. (2022). Kebijakan Moneter dan Implikasinya Terhadap Pembangunan Ekonomi dalam Prespektif Ekonomi Islam. Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 8(1), 166. https://doi.org/10.30821/se.v8i1.13778
Raharjo, H., Wijayanti, A., & Dewi, R. R. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan Dan Inflasi Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia (Tahun 2014-2018). Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Manajemen, 16(1), 15–26. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.31599/jiam.v16i1.110
Rajagukguk, W. (2020). Pengantar Ekonomi Makro. In UKI Press (1st ed.).
Ramadhani, E., & Wardana, G. K. (2021). Pegaruh Inflasi, BI 7 Day Repo Rate dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Margin Pembiayaan Murabahah Perbankan Syariah. Jurnal Masharif Al-Syariah: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 6(30), 787–802. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.30651/jms.v6i3.9755
Rathnasiri, R. A. (2024). The Impact of Macroeconomic Stability on Commercial Bank Profitability: A Study of Sri Lanka. International Journal of Accountancy, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.4038/ija.v4i1.61
Sabrina, I., Yenti, F., & Husni, A. (2021). Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi Makro Nilai Tukar Rupiah Dan Inflasi Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia. Al-Ittifaq: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 1(1), 52. https://doi.org/10.31958/al-ittifaq.v1i1.3268
Sehany, D. M., & Nurhidayati, M. (2022). Pengaruh Dana Pihak Ketiga Dan Inflasi Terhadap Profitabilitas Pada Bank Umum Syariah Bumn Pada Tahun 2016-2020. Jurnal Asy-Syarikah: Jurnal Lembaga Keuangan, Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam, 4(2), 92–108. https://doi.org/10.47435/asy-syarikah.v4i2.1051
Setyawan, A. B., Wasiaturrahma, W., & Anwar, A. I. (2023). Effectiveness of Monetary Transmission Through Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Channels on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 8(2), 236–259. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v8i2.51741
Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D (Sutopo (ed.); 2nd ed.). CV Alfabeta.
Warjiyo, P. (2004). Mekanisme Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Di Indonesia (Issue 11). Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) BI.
Published
2026-06-01
How to Cite
Vio M, A., & Khusnudin, K. (2026). Macroeconomic Drivers of ROA in Indonesian Islamic Commercial Banks: A Time Series Analysis (2019-2024). Jesya, 9(2), 885-899. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36778/jesya.v9i2.2695
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Articles
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