PERAN MEDIASI IPM DALAM HUBUNGAN EMISI KARBON, PDB, DAN HARAPAN LAMA SEKOLAH TERHADAP HARAPAN HIDUP DI INDONESIA
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis peran mediasi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) dalam hubungan antara emisi karbon (CO₂), Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), dan Harapan Lama Sekolah (HLS) terhadap harapan hidup di Indonesia periode 2004–2024. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data time series tahunan sebanyak 21 observasi yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik dan World Bank. Metode analisis yang digunakan meliputi statistik deskriptif, uji asumsi klasik, regresi linear, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), dan bootstrap mediation sebanyak 1.000 replikasi menggunakan Stata 17. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa emisi karbon, PDB, dan HLS berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap IPM. Sementara itu, emisi karbon, PDB, dan HLS berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap harapan hidup secara langsung, sedangkan IPM berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap harapan hidup. Hasil bootstrap menunjukkan bahwa IPM memediasi secara signifikan hubungan antara CO₂, PDB, dan HLS terhadap harapan hidup dengan kategori partial mediation. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pembangunan manusia berperan sebagai mekanisme penting dalam menjelaskan hubungan faktor ekonomi, pendidikan, dan lingkungan terhadap kualitas hidup masyarakat di Indonesia.
Keywords:
Emisi Karbon Dioksida, Produk Domestik Bruto, Harapan Lama Sekolah, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Harapan Hidup, Sobel Test.
References
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Shahabadi, A., & Heidarian, M. (2024). The relationship between human development indicators and technology spillover with environmental quality: Evidence from panel ARDL model for D8 countries. Social Indicators Research, 174(1), 421-444.
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Sugiarto, D., Wibowo, R., & Prasetya, A. (2022). Assessing the role of human development in sustainable growth: Evidence from Indonesia. Global Development Studies, 18(4), 340–355
Syaidatussalihah, S., Mala, F., Permata, R. A., & Khalil, A. A. (2025). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Indonesia Tahun 2023. Jurnal Sains Natural, 3(1), 20-26.
Syaidatussalihah, S., Mala, F., Permata, R. A., & Khalil, A. A. (2025). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Indonesia Tahun 2023. Jurnal Sains Natural, 3(1), 20-26.
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Wahyudi, H., & Leny, S. M. (2025). Nexus among carbon dioxide emissions, gross domestic product, average years of schooling on life expectancy at birth in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(3), 60-67.
Wirayuda, A. A. B., & Chan, M. F. (2021). A systematic review of sociodemographic, macroeconomic, and health resources factors on life expectancy. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 33(4), 335-356.
World Bank. (2025). Carbon Dioxide
(CO2) Emmisions (total) excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e) – Indonesia https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5?locations=ID
Zhang, H., Qiao, H., Li, X., Uddin, I., Li, R., & Zhang, X. (2025). Determinants of life expectancy in high longevity countries: evidence from machine learning. Frontiers in Public Health, 13, 1687871.
Zhang, H., Zhan, Y., & Chen, K. (2025). Do education, urbanization, and green growth promote life expectancy?. Frontiers in Public Health, 12, 1517716.
Adeleye, B. N., Olohunlana, A. O., Ibukun, C. O., Soremi, T., & Suleiman, B. (2022). Mortality rate, carbon emissions, renewable energy and per capita income nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Plos one, 17(9), e0274447.
Ali, I. (2025). Policy Pathways for Progress: Study of Economic, Environmental, and Governance Determinants of HDI in Pakistan. BRICS Journal of Economics, 6(2), 10-3897.
Aslam, M., Ahmad, A., Ali, F., & Akhtar, A. (2023). Nexus between industrialization and greenhouse gas emissions: Impacts on infant mortality in Lower-Middle-Income countries. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 12(4), 817-831.
Baskara, A. (2025). PERAN STRATEGIS PENDIDIKAN DAN KESEHATAN DALAM MENDORONG PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI YANG INKLUSIF DAN BERKELANJUTAN. Educatus, 3(1), 44-49.
Becker, G. S. (1964). Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education. University of Chicago Press.
https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo3684031.html
Betancourt, M., Sikirica, A., & Theis, N. (2025). Revisiting sustainable development: a time-series, cross-national study of the nexus between human well-being and environmental impact. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-20.
BPS. (2024). Metode baru Indeks Pembangunan Manusia. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/NDEzIzI=/-metode-baru--indeks-pembangunan-manusia--ipm-.html
BPS. (2025). Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTA0IzI=/-seri-2010--laju-pertumbuhan-pdb-seri-2010--persen-.html
Chen, T., Tian, Y., Zhang, Z., & Yu, J. (2024). Study on the Coupling and Coordination Relationship Between Urban Living Environment and Economic Development. Buildings, 14(12), 3914.
Chen, Z., Ma, Y., Hua, J., Wang, Y., & Guo, H. (2021). Impacts from economic development and environmental factors on life expectancy: A comparative study based on data from both developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2016. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(16), 8559.
Fan, C., & Bo, L. (2025). Determinants of life expectancy in China: A comparative analysis of economic and non-economic factors. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 29(3), 160-167.
Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
Hasnawati, S., Usman, M., Elfaki, F. A., Faisol, A., & Russel, E. (2024). Modeling the relationship between life expectancy, population growth, carbon dioxide emission, and GDP growth in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(4), 484-500.
Hasnawati, S., Usman, M., Elfaki, F. A., Faisol, A., & Russel, E. (2024). Modeling the relationship between life expectancy, population growth, carbon dioxide emission, and GDP growth in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(4), 484-500.
Hechmi, S. (2025). Economic, Social, and Environmental Drivers of Human Development in Vietnam: An ARDL Approach. Economies, 13(11), 319.
Hossain, M. A., & Chen, S. (2021). Nexus between Human Development Index (HDI) and CO2 emissions in a developing country: decoupling study evidence from Bangladesh. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(41), 58742-58754.
Javanshirova, Z. (2024). The effect of carbon emissions on life expectancy: evidence from Azerbaijan. Journal of Sustainable Development Issues, 2(2), 67-75.
Li, J., Irfan, M., Samad, S., Ali, B., Zhang, Y., Badulescu, D., & Badulescu, A. (2023). The relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, economic growth, and health indicators. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(3), 2325.
Lopez, J. C., Cuba, M. B., Aquize, R. M. V., & Mitta, B. E. C. (2022). Relevance of statistical analysis in quantitative research. Universidad Ciencia y Tecnología, 26(113), 49-56.
Mahalik, M. K., Le, T. H., Le, H. C., & Mallick, H. (2022). How do sources of carbon dioxide emissions affect life expectancy? Insights from 68 developing and emerging economies. World Development Sustainability, 1, 100003.
Munawarah, J., & Kurniawan, R. A. (2025, June). DETERMINANT ANALYSIS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN WEST NUSA TENGGARA. In Proceeding of International Conference on Islamic Education and Science Development (Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 410-421).
Polcyn, J., Voumik, L. C., Ridwan, M., Ray, S., & Vovk, V. (2023). Evaluating the influences of health expenditure, energy consumption, and environmental pollution on life expectancy in Asia. International journal of environmental research and public health, 20(5), 4000.
Preston, S. H. (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Population Studies, 29(2), 231–248.
Saidmamatov, O., Saidmamatov, O., Sobirov, Y., Marty, P., Ruzmetov, D., Berdiyorov, T., ... & Day, J. (2024). Nexus between Life Expectancy, CO2 Emissions, Economic Development, Water, and Agriculture in Aral Sea Basin: Empirical Assessment. Sustainability 2024, 16, 2647.
Sart, G., Bayar, Y., Sezgin, F. H., Danilina, M., & Karagöz, E. (2025). The effect of shadow economy, life expectancy, education, and income on CO2 emissions: an analysis of BRICS countries. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 13, 1550389.
Sasongko, H. E., & Wibowo, P. (2022). Government spending and regional economic growth: The mediating effect of human development index. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Kewirausahaan, 11(2), 230.
Sen, A. (1999). Development as Freedom. Oxford University Press.
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/development-as-freedom-9780198297581
Setiawan, A. B., Yusuf, M., Yudistira, D., & Nugroho, A. D. (2023). Determining economic growth and life expectancy linkages in Indonesia: a simultanous equation model. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi Dan Bisnis (JPEB), 11(01), 12-25.
Shahabadi, A., & Heidarian, M. (2024). The relationship between human development indicators and technology spillover with environmental quality: Evidence from panel ARDL model for D8 countries. Social Indicators Research, 174(1), 421-444.
Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
https://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Sugiarto, D., Wibowo, R., & Prasetya, A. (2022). Assessing the role of human development in sustainable growth: Evidence from Indonesia. Global Development Studies, 18(4), 340–355
Syaidatussalihah, S., Mala, F., Permata, R. A., & Khalil, A. A. (2025). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Indonesia Tahun 2023. Jurnal Sains Natural, 3(1), 20-26.
Syaidatussalihah, S., Mala, F., Permata, R. A., & Khalil, A. A. (2025). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Indonesia Tahun 2023. Jurnal Sains Natural, 3(1), 20-26.
Tanha, I. J., Rahman, M. H., & Majumder, S. C. (2026). Green financing, technological innovation, education and CO2 emissions outlook to determine health outcomes in Next-11 countries. Discover Environment, 4(1), 156.
Țarcă, V., Țarcă, E., & Moscalu, M. (2024, June). Social and economic determinants of life expectancy at birth in Eastern Europe. In Healthcare (Vol. 12, No. 11, p. 1148). MDPI.
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic Development (13th ed.). Pearson Education.
https://www.pearson.com/en-us/subject-catalog/p/economic-development/P200000003479
UNDP. (2023). Human Development Report: Indonesia’s Progress and Challenges. United Nations Development Programme. Available from: https://www.undp.org
United Nations Development Programme. (1990). Human Development Report. UNDP.
https://hdr.undp.org/
Vatamanu, A. F., Onofrei, M., Cigu, E., & Oprea, F. (2025). Renewable energy consumption, institutional quality and life expectancy in EU countries: a cointegration analysis. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 15(1), 2.
Vo, D. H., & Vo, A. T. (2021). Renewable energy and population growth for sustainable development in the Southeast Asian countries. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 11(1), 30.
Wahyudi, H., & Leny, S. M. (2025). Nexus among carbon dioxide emissions, gross domestic product, average years of schooling on life expectancy at birth in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(3), 60-67.
Wirayuda, A. A. B., & Chan, M. F. (2021). A systematic review of sociodemographic, macroeconomic, and health resources factors on life expectancy. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 33(4), 335-356.
World Bank. (2025). Carbon Dioxide
(CO2) Emmisions (total) excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e) – Indonesia https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5?locations=ID
Zhang, H., Qiao, H., Li, X., Uddin, I., Li, R., & Zhang, X. (2025). Determinants of life expectancy in high longevity countries: evidence from machine learning. Frontiers in Public Health, 13, 1687871.
Zhang, H., Zhan, Y., & Chen, K. (2025). Do education, urbanization, and green growth promote life expectancy?. Frontiers in Public Health, 12, 1517716.
Published
2026-06-10
How to Cite
Setiawan, N., & Marpaung, G. (2026). PERAN MEDIASI IPM DALAM HUBUNGAN EMISI KARBON, PDB, DAN HARAPAN LAMA SEKOLAH TERHADAP HARAPAN HIDUP DI INDONESIA. Jesya, 9(2), 1332-1347. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36778/jesya.v9i2.2735
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Articles
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